"Have you heard about the big blizzard coming March 7?"

"Another 40 inches."

"The farmer's almanac predicted those February storms, too."

Like a lot of us, that's what Justin Mathias, 21, of Hanover has been hearing the last couple of weeks.

"They said we were going to get a big one, and it didn't happen," Mathias said. "Good. I'm tired of snow."

He and his friends spent the 50-plus-degree Monday throwing Frisbees around the disc golf course at Codorus State Park.

Like an avalanche, the prediction of a March 7 storm grew and grew, and became grist for talk-show hosts and water-cooler conversations in the snow-shocked Northeast.

Moyer's Almanac, based in Berks County, had predicted the two big storms in February, according to the Reading Eagle. It also called for another massive storm for Sunday, which obviously never came, but had some bracing for the worst.

But that was just one prediction in one "farmer's almanac."

There's the "Farmers' Almanac," which is not to be confused with "The Old Farmer's Almanac," both of which sold out weeks ago in this area. While they are among the best known, they are not the only almanacs.

You can stop at Culp's Hanover News Agency on Baltimore Street and pick up a copy of "Harris' Farmer's Almanac," "Baer's Agricultural Almanac and Gardeners' Guide," "Country Accents Farmer's Almanac," or even the "Hagers-Town Town and Country Almanack," all of which had something different to say about the

weather, and none of which had predicted the massive February storms.

Between canning tips and tales of tornadoes from 1910, most farmer's almanacs make weather predictions for an entire year. "Harris' Farmer's Almanac," for example, called for slightly below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation for February, and severe weather in March. "The Country Accent Farmer's Almanac" predicted mild, scattered storms in February, followed by one storm per week in March.

According to "The Old Farmer's Almanac," the weather predictions they use come from a secret formula created by founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792. The formula has been tweaked over the years as new methods of long-range predictions have been added, such as studying sunspots and climatology, according to the almanac's Web site.

But meteorologists say it is difficult to forecast the weather beyond five days with any accuracy.

"The idea you can pinpoint a forecast months in advance has no basis," said Greg DeVoir, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in State College. "People need to take it with a grain of salt."

He said these predictions are given credibility they do not deserve when readers see them on the front page of a newspaper, and can possibly damage the impact of weather forecasts from credible sources.

Even the Berks County prognosticator told the Reading Eagle that his almanac is a hobby and "the news media took this March 7 date of mine and ran with it."

Do people buy almanacs for the entertainment value, or are they putting credence in what they read?

Will Rickrode works at the Hanover News Agency. While he has never read an almanac, from what his customers have told him, he doesn't put a lot of credibility in it.

"I go by the opposite of what they say," he said. "Last year they called for record-breaking snow, and we didn't get anything. This year, they were calling for nothing much, and we got slammed."

smarroni@eveningsun.com