Almanacs “The Almanac - OfficialWire” plus 4 more

The Almanac - OfficialWire
TWISTEX Continues on "Storm Chasers" - Denver Channel
Daily almanac - Columbus Dispatch
Cataloging the barn stars of Penna. - Philadelphia Inquirer
On Native Ground - American Reporter

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Posted: 06 Nov 2009 02:22 AM PST

The moon is waning. The morning stars are Venus, Mars and Saturn. The evening stars are Jupiter, Neptune, Mercury and Uranus.

Those born on this date are under the sign of Scorpio. They include Belgian instrument-maker Adolphe Sax, inventor of the saxophone, in 1814; band leader and composer John Philip Sousa ("the March King") in 1854; Charles Henry Dow, co-founder of Dow Jones and Co. and first editor of The Wall Street Journal, in 1851; James Naismith, inventor of the game of basketball, in 1861; musician Ray Conniff in 1916; director Mike Nichols in 1931 (age 78); actress Sally Field in 1946 (age 63); singer/songwriter Glenn Frey in 1948 (age 61); TV journalist and California's first lady Maria Shriver in 1955 (age 54); actors Lance Kerwin in 1960 (age 49), Ethan Hawke in 1970 (age 39) and Rebecca Romijn in 1972 (age 37).

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On this date in history:

In 1860, Abraham Lincoln was elected 16th president of the United States.

In 1869, in the first formal intercollegiate football game, Rutgers beat Princeton, 6-4.

In 1917, the Bolshevik revolution began in Russia. Because it took place under the old czarist calendar, it is known as the October Revolution.

In 1921, the cult of Rudolph Valentino was launched with the release of his silent film "The Sheik," which despite negative reviews immediately caught the attention of women across the United States.

In 1952, the United States exploded the world's first hydrogen bomb at Eniwetok Atoll in the Pacific.

In 1968, Republican Richard Nixon was elected 37th president of the United States, defeating Democrat Hubert Humphrey.

In 1984, U.S. President Ronald Reagan was elected to a second term, winning 49 states.

In 1986, U.S. intelligence sources confirmed a report that the United States secretly sold arms to Iran to secure the release of seven U.S. hostages held by pro-Iranian groups in Lebanon.

Also in 1986, U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the landmark immigration reform bill, the first U.S. immigration law authorizing penalties for employers who hire illegal aliens.

In 1990, a gunman opened fire as Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev presided over the Revolution Day parade. Gorbachev wasn't injured.

In 1991, Ukrainian leaders signed the Soviet economic-union treaty at the Kremlin.

In 1995, numerous world leaders gathered in Jerusalem for the funeral of assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

In 2001, speaking at a Warsaw summit, U.S. President George Bush said for the first time that Osama bin Laden was trying to get chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

In 2002, the U.N. Security Council began considering the revised U.S. draft resolution that would declare Iraq in continuing "material breach" of previous measures and warn Baghdad of "serious consequences" if it failed to cooperate with weapons inspectors.

In 2005, at least 23 people were killed and some 230 injured when a tornado swept through parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

Also in 2005, U.S. gasoline prices fell an average of 23 cents per gallon to pre-Hurricane Katrina levels. The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular unleaded gasoline was $2.43, about 20 cents lower than it had been a few days before Aug. 29 storm.

In 2006, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, unconscious since suffering a stroke in January, was taken out of intensive care at a Jerusalem hospital.

In 2007, a suicide bomber hurled himself at a delegation of lawmakers in a northern Afghan city, killing at least 50 people, including six members of parliament and several children, and injuring about 150 others, police said.

Also in 2007, military reports said the deaths of six U.S. troops in Iraq made 2007 the deadliest year of the conflict for American forces. The reported toll reached 851, two more than the record set in 2004.

In 2008, as the cease fire between the Congo government and rebel forces appeared about to collapse, African and U.N. leaders met in Nairobi to sign an agreement calling for an immediate end to the fighting.

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A thought for the day: John Maynard Keynes said, "Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking."

TWISTEX Continues on "Storm Chasers" - Denver Channel

Posted: 06 Nov 2009 12:49 AM PST

Nov. 5, 2009

"Storm Chasers" on the Discovery Channel continues this Sunday with the forth episode of season 3 and once again will feature Denver-based storm chasers Tim Samaras and Tony Laubach. Tim heads up the research team, TWISTEX, and will continue to be featured every Sunday through November on "Storm Chasers"

This week's episode will feature the group in Missouri on the heels of a tornado that damages the town of Kirksville. In this episode, the TWISTEX crew will all look alike as Tony Laubach's famous jersey ends up on the crew during this chase! It will make for some funny moments as well as some very adrenalin pumped-scenes!

The episode will air this Sunday on the Discovery Channel at 8pm MT. This is the fourth of eight episodes in this series that will air through the first weekend in December.

Nov. 1, 2009

DO NOT MISS THE COLORADO ENVIRONMENTAL FILM FESTIVAL!

If you're passionate about the environment and love watching films, check out the fourth Annual Colorado Environmental Film Festival, running from Nov. 5 to 7 at the American Mountaineering Center in Golden.

The festival will also include a mix of films showing audiences where oil comes from and explaining where old televisions, computers or cell phones end up. TAPPED, a noteworthy film, will show the future of our precious water resources for Colorado's landscape and the livelihoods of landowners.

In all, two dozen films will be shown during the four-day event.

On Saturday filmmakers will answer audience questions about their films and explain what it takes to produce an environmental film. There will also be a silent auction during the festival, where patrons can bid on some of the DVD versions of the films and other environmentally friendly items.

Over the weekend, many organizations will be at the festival with information on the environment, including Project Learning Tree, the International Center for Appropriate and Sustainable Technology, Colorado Mountain Club, the U.S. Forest Service and Colorado State Forest Service.

There is also fun for the kids on Saturday from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. There will be activities available to teach kids about renewable and nonrenewable energy sources.

The festival will also hold a free recycling event of electronics, such as PCs, cell phones, fax machines, printers, microwaves and anything with a circuit board. Monitors can be recycled for an $8 fee, televisions for $10 to $25. The recycling event will be held Saturday, Nov. 7 from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the Mountaineering Center.

If you would like to purchase tickets and download a schedule with brief synopsis of each film, go to: the Web site for Colorado Environmental Film Festival 2009.

Oct. 27, 2009

Forecasting for Colorado is very tricky, and this is another excellent case! A very potent winter storm is now moving across the Four Corners region and as it moves across Colorado, it will dump a lot of snow across the region, but there will also be places that see very little snow.

The mountains look to do well regardless with a couple feet likely in upslope favored areas east of the divide. However, the eastern plains will see only a little snow.

Computer models are showing this system taking a path along the CO/NM border with snow continuing through Thursday afternoon. Denver could see 10-18 inches of snow with the heavier amounts south and west. To the east, the plains east of Limon will only pick up a few inches of snow, and near the Kansas border it will all come in the form of wet, slushy snow or just plain rain.

Stay with us here at 7News and we will continue to update you with the latest information we have!

Oct. 24, 2009

If you are curious about how we make weather forecasts, what El Nino will mean for our upcoming winter or the latest information on climate change - please check out WEATHER 101! This featuer on our navigation bar is filled with plenty of stories and great links to help you learn much more about the fascinating new research in weather and climate.

Weather 101 will be a growing and developing part of our website and will feature Chris Spears - former 7News weather producer and climate expert. Chris will be adding and expanding the resources in this area as we develop the 7News CLIMATE CORNER. In this web feature, we will seek to give you many of the best resources for this important topic.

In addition, Steve Hamilton - another local meteorologist who helps out in th 24/7Weather Center - will be available to answer your questions about weather - so drop him an e-mail with any weather query you might have.

Be sure to also check out our Storm Chaser link on the navigation bar. Two of our 24/7 Storm Chasers are currently being featured in the new season of Storm Chasers - on the Discovery Channel. Watch for Tim Samaras and Tony Laubach on the TV show and you can read more aavaibout them on our Storm Chaser section. In addition, Roger Hill, a veteran local storm chaser has a new biography. Follow along with Roger on his blog and you may want to get a copy of his new book!

We are always trying to improve our weather coverage, so please send us any thoughts or suggestions. You can send them my way at mike_nelson@kmgh.com

DO NOT MISS THE COLORADO ENVIRONMENTAL FILM FESTIVAL!

In all, two dozen films will be shown during the four-day event.

There is also fun for the kids on Saturday from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. There will be activities available to teach kids about renewable and nonrenewable energy sources.

If you would like to purchase tickets and download a schedule with brief synopsis of each film, go to: the Web site for Colorado Environmental Film Festival 2009.

Oct. 19, 2009

7NEWS is proud to once again be the official media sponsor for SUPER SCIENCE SATURDAY, October 24, at NCAR's Mesa Lab in Boulder.

Super Science Saturday is an annual event hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) that is FREE and open to the public. The event combines science education with Halloween fun and is ideal for teachers, students, and families. The excitement begins at 10 AM and lasts until 4 PM.

Festivities include live demonstrations, hands-on activity tables, and special science workshops. Again this year, the 24/7 Weather Center at 7NEWS will bring its "24/7 Weather Experience" to Super Science Saturday, giving attendees the chance to see what a live television weather set looks like, as well as a chance to stand in front of the green screen and do the weather. 7News Meteorologists Mike Nelson, Richard Ortner, Corey Christiansen and Lisa Hidalgo will all be making an appearance to sign autographs and say hello!

NCAR is the world's premiere research facility for weather and climate and many of the top NCAR scientists will be on hand to answer questions about our often wild and fast changing weather. Also included this year is the outdoor physics adventure featuring a climbing wall, kayak tank, and mountain bike course!

Food and drinks will be for sale in the NCAR cafeteria.

Bring along a new or gently used coat to donate to our COATS FOR COLORADO campaign!

NCAR's Mesa Laboratory is located at 1850 Table Mesa Drive in Boulder.

For more information, contact David Hosansky at 303-497-8611, or Laura Allen at 303-497-2408.

This will mark the thirteenthth year of Super Science Saturday, the largest public event NCAR holds each year, attracting over 3,000 attendees.

Oct. 15, 2009

Denver Storm Chasers Tim Samaras and Tony Laubach will be two of may featured chasers on the hit TV series "Storm Chasers" on the Discovery Channel. Tim's the leader of the research group, TWISTEX and he along with Tony Laubach spent several months of the Spring and Summer chasing tornadoes across the country. The season treated them very well considering the lack of storms in the height of the season and their adventures will be well documented with the show.

"Storm Chasers" premieres this Sunday, October 18 on the Discovery Channel at 8pm. Starting at 6pm, Discovery will air a best of highlighting past chases from the show and will lead into the upcoming season.

If you want to learn more about Tim and Tony, they both have websites and blogs. You can view Tim's TWISTEX website at http://www.twistex.org and Tony's website at http://www.tornadoeskick.com.

Oct. 8, 2009

One of the most important ways that we can understand how our climate in changing in Colorado is to have more and better weather records and you can help!

Volunteers are needed to help us measure rain, snow and hail across Colorado and surrounding states. We are very excited at 7News to be a part of CoCoRahs - the Community Collaborative Rain and Hail Study. If you would like to learn how you can help, check out this link. We will be developing more climate related content in a new feature called "Climate Corner". It will be managed by Chris Spears, a local climatologist and weather expert.

Climate Corner a new addition to our website.

The topic of climate change seems to have become as much political science as it is physical science. In that light, there is a seemingly large controversy about what is happening and to what extent mankind is helping to cause some of the changes. But, in the strict world of truly peer reviewed science, the degree of controversy is not as great as some of the politically driven organizations would have us believe.

The majority of climate scientists are in agreement that the overall warming of the planet has been caused in part by mankind. This warming is due to the increase of greenhouse gases - such as CO2, methane and CFCs (chloro-fluorocarbons).

There is much discussion, especially on talk radio about the fact that the sun has by far the largest impact on our climate. The sun has certainly not been overlooked, the periodic changes in solar output and the orbital changes are taken into account in the climate studies and modeling.

Some scientists feel that the increase in atmospheric CO2 will be offset by the ability of plants and the oceans to absorb this gas. In fact, some experts believe that the increase in CO2 will be a good thing - improving crop yields and making more parts of the world able to support crops. At the same time, that warming may cause more severe droughts in key agricultural areas. In addition, which plants will benefit most - will it be useful crops, or weeds!

A comment often heard is that CO2 is just a tiny fraction of the atmosphere, less than 3 parts in 10,000. Just because CO2 is a trace gas does not mean that it is not important in the equation. Small amounts do matter - I weigh 200 pounds, but it certainly does not take 200 pounds of arsenic to kill me.

One of the best lines that I have heard about our climate and it's unpredictability is that "climate is like an angry bear, we keep prodding and irritating it, and the results will likely be both severe and unpredictable".

You hear an awful lot of comments about unusual local weather events such as the snow in Las Vegas or other southern areas. It is important to understand that short term weather is to climate as one play in a football game is to the entire NFL season.

For example, the extreme cold and snow that was experienced in central U.S. during the middle of December 2008. Well, while Colorado and adjacent states were shivering, Fairbanks was enjoying very mild weather for their area. When the chilly polar vortex drifted back to the north, Fairbanks was very cold and Colorado hit 60 degree temperatures in January. More recently, the weather this past summer was indeed cooler and wetter in Colorado, but very hot and dry in the Pacific Northwest.

It is often quoted that 1998 was the warmest year and that global temperatures have cooled since that time. This information is misleading. In 1998, the world climate was influenced by one of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded. This pool of very warm Pacific Ocean water bumped global temperatures higher. Until recently, the Pacific was in the midst of a slight La Nina - cooler sea surface temperatures. These periodic warming and cooling episodes need to be taken into consideration in the the overall global temperature trend and properly explained to the public.

Many of the skeptics of anthropogenic climate change are not primarily trained in atmospheric science. Often they have backgrounds in other disciplines such as physics, geology or economics - certainly well educated folks, but analogous to asking a climate scientist where we should drill an oil well. I think that is it important that we make this distinction when asked questions about climate change and differing viewpoints. It is certainly good scientific practice to have a healthy discussion, but again we must come back to solid peer reviewed science.

Oct. 5, 2009

A weak storm system will push across Colorado tonight and Monday, bringing light snow to the mountains and a few showers to the eastern plains. The low pressure center of this storm will pass to the north of Denver, keeping most of the moisture in Wyoming and Nebraska. Only a few inches of snow will accumulate over the higher mountains, perhaps one to four inches.

At lower elevations, there will be a mix of clouds and sunshine on Monday, with some widely scattered showers. The storm system will move to the east of Colorado by Tuesday, with skies returning to hazy sunshine for the middle of the week.

Late this week a stronger cold front will move south from Canada. This front will have some pretty chilly air associated with it and will bring rain and snow to the state late Friday and Saturday. The arrival of the front is still several days away, so we will keep an eye on it in terms of just how chilly things will be by Saturday. At this point, look for next weekend to be a much more gray, cold and wet weekend than this past weekend.

Oct. 2-4, 2009

September ended on a warm note, with highs in the 80s for the last two days. With the change of the calendar, the weather turned as well, with much colder air over Colorado. A strong cold front swept across Colorado late Wednesday and brought a 20-30 degree drop in temperatures by Thursday afternoon. Strong northwest winds whipped over the region behind the front, with gusts to 50 mph helping to bring in the chilly air.

The winds will be diminishing over the area and with clear skies, the temperatures will take a nighttime tumble. Lows will drop into the 20s in the mountains and 30s at lower elevations through the weekend. Freezing conditions will make it tough on tomatoes through Saturday morning, so C.Y.P. - Cover Your Plants!!

Folks may wonder about their sprinkler systems and if they are in jeopardy with the cold nights. In general, the underground pipes are just fine for now, the ground is too warm for the pipes to freeze. The exposed pipes on the side of your home are a different story though. It is a good idea to put a blanket or an old sleeping bag over those pipes for the next few nights. As far as getting the system winterized, any time now is a good idea as your lawn is starting to slow it's growth in preparation for winter.

There is an exciting event this weekend - the annual SOLAR HOME TOUR in Denver. See some of the latest breakthroughs and the smartest homes in the neighborhood. The event is on Saturday and for all the details go to www.cres-energy.org.

Sept 29, 2009

A very active severe weather season will get some extra legs over the next couple of days as a very potent storm system moves across the country. Large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible Wednesday and Thursday from Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas.

Wednesday's storm potential rests across western Kansas and Nebraska as the system starts to interact with the moist atmosphere. A strong cap, or warm air aloft, may prevent storms from forming til well after dark across the region, but if storms are able to form in this region early on, supercells are likely to develop with very large hail and a few tornadoes.

Thursday looks to be the more potent day. The strong cold front that will drop our temperatures here in Colorado will be sweeping across the plains and will trigger a large damaging squall line for areas in eastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, western Missouri, and western Arkansas. A few supercells may form early before the cold front plows through causing those storms to quickly merge into a fast moving wind driven line of heavy thunderstorms.

While not likely, the setup Thursday may produce a very significant outbreak of severe weather, including the potential for a few strong tornadoes. However given the speed of the cold front, its not likely that storms will be isolated long enough to produce such strong tornadoes.

After a very successful season, 7News Weather Producer and Storm Chaser Tony Laubach will give it one more go as he will be out chasing this event Wednesday and Thursday. Tony will be blogging during his trip with pictures and status updates and you can keep track of him and Corey at http://www.tornadoeskick.com. There you will find a live updated map showing Tony's location as well as his blog updates from the field. Tony's videos and reports will also be aired on 7News shows over the next couple of days, so definitely stay tuned as they cover this potential autumn severe weather outbreak.

Sept 28, 2009

The weather was pretty chilly early today, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s across northeastern Colorado. A weak cold front slipped through the state last night, bringing in cooler air, but very little clouds cover and no precipitation. High temperatures held in the low 70s for today, with 60s in the mountains. The cooldown will not last long, as southwesterly winds will sweep across Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will bounce back into the 80s at lower elevations, with 70s in the mountains.

The weather will begin to shift on Wednesday as a strong cold front moves toward Colorado from the northwest. The weather will be warm ahead of this front, but showers and thunderstorms will be developing later in the day. By Wednesday night and Thursday, a chilly airmass will descend upon the state, with chilly rain on the plains and snow for the mountains.

The chilly weather will linger into Friday and there is a chance for some frost in Denver and over the northeastern plains Friday morning. By the weekend, the weather will rebound with warmer and drier conditions returning.

Attention local gardeners! The Horizon House is a local care center for people with cancer and other terminal diseases. Every year, they make salsa from home grown green tomatos and sell them to raise money for their organization. Unfortunately, the July 20th hailstorm took out most of the garden and they are in search of green tomatoes. So if you are in your garden and have some extra green tomatos to pass along, please contact Harry Lester at harrylester@q.com.

The Autumn color is still looking very good in the central and southwestern mountains where brilliant gold remains in abundance. The northern mountain areas still have pockets of good color, but are past the peak. The next few days will offer very good weather and no driving problems, so if you can get to the mountains, here are some of our favorite routes.

1) Steamboat Springs, Elk River country north on County Road 129. Also check the view on Rabbit Ears Pass and Buffalo Pass east.

2) Colorado 14 through the Poudre Canyon west of Fort Collins

3) Trail Ridge Road (US 34) through Rocky Mountain National Park

4) Flat Tops country between Buford and Newcastle

5) Tennessee Pass, US 24, from Leadville to Vail

6) Boreas Pass between Como and Breckenridge, a 23 mile road cresting at 11,481 feet.

7) Guanella Pass between Georgetown and Grant - Normally a great route, but this year there is major road construction above Georgetown!!

8) Grand Mesa, Colorado 65 east of Grand Junction and north of Delta.

9) Maroon Bells near Aspen, a classic Colorado view!

10) Independence Pass, Colorado 82 between Twins Lakes and Aspen.

11) Colorado 135 between Crested Butte and Gunnison. Also try Kebler Pass west of Crested Butte on Gunnison County Road 12!

12) Cottonwood Pass, Colorado 306 between Buena Vista and Taylor Park

13) Monarch Pass, US 50 from Salida to Gunnison.

14) Cochetopa Pass between Saguache and Gunnison.

15) Gold Camp Road - Colorado 67 between Divide and Cripple Creek.

16) Lizard Head Pass, Colorado 145 between Dolores and Telluride.

17) Slumgullion Pass, Colorado 149 between Lake City, Creede and South Fork.

18) US 160, Navajo Trail, between Pagosa Springs and Cortez.

19) Platoro Reservoir, south of Del Norte and west of Conejos.

20) Cucharas Pass, Colorado 12, from Trinidad to Walsenburg.

21) CO 103 from Evergreen Parkway west to Echo Lake.

22) McClure Pass - This is a spectacular 8,755 foot pass south of Carbondale along Colorado 133 and the Crystal River.

Be sure to send us your digital images of the aspen. I will try to show as many as possible on TV and we will put them together into slideshows right here on TheDenverChannel.com!

Sept 24, 2009

After a very cool, cloudy, and wet week, Nature will make up for it and then some this weekend with a gorgeous stretch of days. As the lingering storm system hobbles it's way off to the east, a ridge of high pressure is developing over the region, resulting in much warmer temperatures and the sun.

The showers moved in on Monday and were still wandering over eastern Colorado five days later. Scattered thunderstorms rumbled over the Denver area and across the eastern plains in the early morning hours of Friday, but dry weather is now on tap. Temperatures will warm into the 70s to low 80s.

The fall colors took a beating in the northern mountains from snow this week, but there are still some great areas of across the central and southwest mountains.

Here is a good website, with info on the fall color...

www.parks.state.co.us.

Here are some great places to view the aspen gold!

1) Steamboat Springs, Elk River country north on County Road 129. Also check the view on Rabbit Ears Pass and Buffalo Pass east.

2) Colorado 14 through the Poudre Canyon west of Fort Collins

3) Trail Ridge Road (US 34) through Rocky Mountain National Park

4) Flat Tops country between Buford and Newcastle

5) Tennessee Pass, US 24, from Leadville to Vail

6) Boreas Pass between Como and Breckenridge, a 23 mile road cresting at 11,481 feet.

7) Guanella Pass between Georgetown and Grant - Normally a great route, but this year there is major road construction above Georgetown!!

8) Grand Mesa, Colorado 65 east of Grand Junction and north of Delta.

9) Maroon Bells near Aspen, a classic Colorado view!

10) Independence Pass, Colorado 82 between Twins Lakes and Aspen.

11) Colorado 135 between Crested Butte and Gunnison. Also try Kebler Pass west of Crested Butte on Gunnison County Road 12!

12) Cottonwood Pass, Colorado 306 between Buena Vista and Taylor Park

13) Monarch Pass, US 50 from Salida to Gunnison.

14) Cochetopa Pass between Saguache and Gunnison.

15) Gold Camp Road - Colorado 67 between Divide and Cripple Creek.

16) Lizard Head Pass, Colorado 145 between Dolores and Telluride.

17) Slumgullion Pass, Colorado 149 between Lake City, Creede and South Fork.

18) US 160, Navajo Trail, between Pagosa Springs and Cortez.

19) Platoro Reservoir, south of Del Norte and west of Conejos.

20) Cucharas Pass, Colorado 12, from Trinidad to Walsenburg.

21) CO 103 from Evergreen Parkway west to Echo Lake.

22) McClure Pass - This is a spectacular 8,755 foot pass south of Carbondale along Colorado 133 and the Crystal River.

Be sure to send us your digital images of the aspen. I will try to show as many as possible on TV and we will put them together into slideshows right here on TheDenverChannel.com!

Sept 22, 2009

The deep upper level low pressure system that has been swirling over eastern Colorado for the last few days is done finished with us. The sluggish storm is still spinning over the Colorado-Kansas border and will sweep more clouds and showers over the I-25 Corridor, the mountains along and east of the Divide and the eastern plains. Western Colorado will be a different story, with mostly sunny skies and mild weather today.

The snow threat will be low, as the temperatures will be in the low 50s, but it will still be quite cool for early Autumn - about 15-20 degrees below normal. There will be some scattered showers on the plains today, with snow mixing in above 9,000 feet. A few more inches of slushy snow will fall in the higher mountains.

It has been a year filled with weather oddities and events. In fact, people are still recovering from summer events, including the big storm that plowed through the city back in July. The Horizon House is a local care center for people with cancer and other terminal diseases. Every year, they make salsa from home grown green tomatos and sell them to raise money for their organization. Unfortunately, that July storm took out most of the garden and they are in search of green tomatos. So if you're in your garden and have some extra green tomatos to pass along, please contact Harry Lester at harrylester@q.com.

By tomorrow, the upper air disturbance will swirl away across the Great Plains and will leave Colorado. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will return for the weekend.

The fall color will have taken a beating over the northern mountains, but central and southern areas will still be gold and glorious!

Here is a good website, with info on the fall color...

www.parks.state.co.us.

Here are some great places to view the aspen gold!

1) Steamboat Springs, Elk River country north on County Road 129. Also check the view on Rabbit Ears Pass and Buffalo Pass east.

2) Colorado 14 through the Poudre Canyon west of Fort Collins

3) Trail Ridge Road (US 34) through Rocky Mountain National Park

4) Flat Tops country between Buford and Newcastle

5) Tennessee Pass, US 24, from Leadville to Vail

6) Boreas Pass between Como and Breckenridge, a 23 mile road cresting at 11,481 feet.

7) Guanella Pass between Georgetown and Grant - Normally a great route, but this year there is major road construction above Georgetown!!

8) Grand Mesa, Colorado 65 east of Grand Junction and north of Delta.

9) Maroon Bells near Aspen, a classic Colorado view!

10) Independence Pass, Colorado 82 between Twins Lakes and Aspen.

11) Colorado 135 between Crested Butte and Gunnison. Also try Kebler Pass west of Crested Butte on Gunnison County Road 12!

12) Cottonwood Pass, Colorado 306 between Buena Vista and Taylor Park

13) Monarch Pass, US 50 from Salida to Gunnison.

14) Cochetopa Pass between Saguache and Gunnison.

15) Gold Camp Road - Colorado 67 between Divide and Cripple Creek.

16) Lizard Head Pass, Colorado 145 between Dolores and Telluride.

17) Slumgullion Pass, Colorado 149 between Lake City, Creede and South Fork.

18) US 160, Navajo Trail, between Pagosa Springs and Cortez.

19) Platoro Reservoir, south of Del Norte and west of Conejos.

20) Cucharas Pass, Colorado 12, from Trinidad to Walsenburg.

21) CO 103 from Evergreen Parkway west to Echo Lake.

22) McClure Pass - This is a spectacular 8,755 foot pass south of Carbondale along Colorado 133 and the Crystal River.

Be sure to send us your digital images of the aspen. I will try to show as many as possible on TV and we will put them together into slideshows right here on TheDenverChannel.com!

Sept 22, 2009

The much advertised storm system has deeked and dodged and will leave Denver dry. Well, not entirely dry, just a little wet, but not white. The upper level low that was expected to move over the eastern plains has shifted into western Kansas and that will make all the difference. Instead of a moist upslope flow over the Front Range, all of the moisture is over the plains east of Denver. Along the foothills, we have had a gentle westerly flow and that is all downslope - hence very little precipitation, but a lot of egg of the faces of forecasters!

Well, it is not always easy to forecast in Colorado and this one will be a check mark against us in the accuracy column, sorry about that. The entire prediction was based on the position of the upper level low and that darn thing has wobbled off too far to the east. Instead of snow and rain in Denver and heavy snow in the foothills, we will have clouds, cool temperatures and some light showers today.

The good news, no tree damage in Denver, the aspens trees will still look pretty in the mountains and the weekend looks great!

Sept 22, 2009

The Fall season officially arrived at 3:19 PM today, however the new season got a major jump start as a strong cold front swept through the state early Monday. The moisture associated with the 30-40 degree drop in temperatures came in both wet and white form. Four to eight inches of snow was reported over much of the northern and central mountains and the adjacent foothills.

Temperatures in Denver went on a wild ride with highs in the mid 80s on Sunday afternoon to the low 30s with flakes flying across Denver Monday morning. But now, we may be in for the first real snow of the season in Denver. Some suburban areas did get light snow yesterday, but no snow fell at DIA or downtown. Our average first day of snow is not until October 19th, but September snows do occur about every 3-4 years. Last year, the first flakes flew on November 14.

Snow will fall heavily in the mountains and foothills west of Denver, and along the Palmer Divide this afternoon and tonight. In fact - a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for areas above 6,500 feet for tonight. Six to sixteen inches of snow may plop down in the warning area by Wednesday afternoon. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the Palmer Divide areas with up to 10 inches of snow possible in the higher elevations of Douglas and Elbert counties.

It will be a wet, sloppy snow that will be tough on trees. You may need to get out with a broom and try to knock down as much of the snow as possible as the trees, still being in leaf, will take a pounding.

Denver prpoer, will get a mix of rain and snow, but some light accumulations are likely - perhaps a couple of slushy inches on grassy surfaces.

The chilly weather will hang around for most of this week as a deep upper air disturbance swirls on top of Colorado. This chilly air aloft makes the atmosphere very unstable and the result is the soggy, cold and sloppy weather. Gardeners will probably want to cover your tomato plants tonight. The chance for a hard freeze is low because of the clouds, but some areas may get a little frost nip during the next two nights. In addition, if you are in an area that will get wet snow, try to put some kind of support over the tomatoes to keep the weight of the snow off of the plants.

It is likely, the wet and snowy weather will completely wipe out the aspen viewing in northern Colorado. The display has been ahead of schedule this year, due to the cool summer. A couple of days of rain and snow will knock down many of the leaves.

It's all a fitting start to the season in a year filled with weather oddities and events. In fact, people are still recovering from summer events, including the big storm that plowed through the city back in July. The Horizon House is a local care center for people with cancer and other terminal diseases. Every year, they make salsa from home grown green tomatos and sell them to raise money for their organization. Unfortunately, that July storm took out most of the garden and they are in search of green tomatos. So if you're out salvaging your garden to get them in ahead of this first snowstorm and you have some extra green tomatos to pass along, please contact Harry Lester at harrylester@q.com.

By the weekend, the weather will improve dramatically, with sunshine and very pleasant early fall weather. If the leaves manage to hang on over the next 72 hours, we should have a lovely weekend to check out the aspen gold, but the best viewing will shift to the central and southern mountains.

Here is a good website, with info on the fall color...

www.parks.state.co.us.

Here are some great places to view the aspen gold!

1) Steamboat Springs, Elk River country north on County Road 129. Also check the view on Rabbit Ears Pass and Buffalo Pass east.

2) Colorado 14 through the Poudre Canyon west of Fort Collins

3) Trail Ridge Road (US 34) through Rocky Mountain National Park

4) Flat Tops country between Buford and Newcastle

5) Tennessee Pass, US 24, from Leadville to Vail

6) Boreas Pass between Como and Breckenridge, a 23 mile road cresting at 11,481 feet.

7) Guanella Pass between Georgetown and Grant - Normally a great route, but this year there is major road construction above Georgetown!!

8) Grand Mesa, Colorado 65 east of Grand Junction and north of Delta.

9) Maroon Bells near Aspen, a classic Colorado view!

10) Independence Pass, Colorado 82 between Twins Lakes and Aspen.

11) Colorado 135 between Crested Butte and Gunnison. Also try Kebler Pass west of Crested Butte on Gunnison County Road 12!

12) Cottonwood Pass, Colorado 306 between Buena Vista and Taylor Park

13) Monarch Pass, US 50 from Salida to Gunnison.

14) Cochetopa Pass between Saguache and Gunnison.

15) Gold Camp Road - Colorado 67 between Divide and Cripple Creek.

16) Lizard Head Pass, Colorado 145 between Dolores and Telluride.

17) Slumgullion Pass, Colorado 149 between Lake City, Creede and South Fork.

18) US 160, Navajo Trail, between Pagosa Springs and Cortez.

19) Platoro Reservoir, south of Del Norte and west of Conejos.

20) Cucharas Pass, Colorado 12, from Trinidad to Walsenburg.

21) CO 103 from Evergreen Parkway west to Echo Lake.

22) McClure Pass - This is a spectacular 8,755 foot pass south of Carbondale along Colorado 133 and the Crystal River.

Be sure to send us your digital images of the aspen. I will try to show as many as possible on TV and we will put them together into slideshows right here on TheDenverChannel.com!

Sept 14, 2009

The past weekend was a half and half affair over Colorado. Saturday was cool and cloudy with scattered showers and even a touch of snow over the high mountains. Sunday returned to more typical late summer weather with scattered afternoon thunderstorms and much warmer temperatures. The cause of the cool weather on Saturday was a weak upper air disturbance that settled over the region. The chilly temperatures aloft helped make the atmosphere unstable and brought showers and even some light snow. By Sunday, the upper air disturbance had moved out of the region, allowing temperatures to warm again. There was still enough moisture trapped in the mid levels of the atmosphere to bring some afternoon storms to the mountains and foothills.

The next few days will bring more late summer thunderstorms to much of the state as the winds aloft will be quite light and no major weather system will be moving into the central Rockies. There will continue to be some moisture in the middle part of the atmosphere (about 15-25 thousand feet) and that means we will continue to have scattered thunderstorms each day. The best chance for storms will be in the mountains and foothills, with only a slight chance expected over the eastern plains.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer than average across Colorado. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s on the plains, with 60s expected in the mountains. Nighttime lows will slip into the upper 40s to mid 50s at lower elevations, with mainly 30s in the mountains.

Speaking of the mountains, we are getting some good color over the northern and central mountains right now. You had better be quick this year, as the wet summer will likely mean a short season for the aspen gold. Typically moist summers tend to make the leaves turn black and fall off the trees more quickly. Once again this year, we are providing some great fall color routes to explore. Just click on the Discover Colorado button on the left side of this page.

Sept 10, 2009

A brief, but big change is in store for this weekend with much cooler temperatures and a showery weekend. A strong upper level storm system moving out of the Pacific northwest will move across the Northern Plains, but a surface cold front will push through Colorado bringing the start of a weekend-long change. The storm system will be too far north to make for a widespread rain event, but some upslope winds behind the front will keep showers in the forecast through Sunday.

Temperatures will be the big story with this system as we get our first taste of Fall. Friday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Thursday, but even cooler temperatures await us on Saturday where highs won't break out of the 60s. It may feel even cooler than that with the clouds, a sign of Fall for sure. Temperatures rebound a little bit on Sunday, then bounce back to near 80 early next week.

Fall colors are starting to show in the high country thanks in part to the cooler than average summer. Unfortunately the early start to the colors may signal a shorter fall viewing season than normal. Its probably worth getting up early to enjoy the colors before the peak. Get brushed up on some of my favorite fall color routes by clicking here! I have 20 different routes filled with some of the best fall color Colorado has to offer!

Enjoy the NFL kickoff weekend! It will definitely feel like football weather!

Sept 4-7, 2009

The weather pattern that has brought so much severe weather to Denver and the eastern plains of Colorado will start to mellow out as we get deeper into September. The days are growing shorter as we now have about 12.5 hours of daylight, about 2 hours less than in late June. The shorter days mean less solar heating to help inspire thunderstorm development. We will still have some widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but the really severe storms are just about done for the season.

We are now beginning to hear some reports of the aspen changing color in the northern mountains! It looks like we should see our peak color pretty much on schedule this year, but the wet summer may make this year's display a little less brilliant. The best years for aspen viewing are those with well-timed rains and no major fall storms. A too dry summer will send the leaves falling quickly, while a wet summer tends to make them darken to brown or black. The best color over the northern mountains should be from September 20th to the 30th. The central mountains will be about five days behind, with the southern mountain areas rounding out the last days of the month and the first ten days of October.

Usually the first signs of aspen gold tend to begin in late August over the higher forests of central and northern Colorado. By the second and third week of September, many aspen groves are well worth a day's drive. Usually the peak time to view aspen is around the last weekend of September. After that, early snows will knock down the leaves and others drop away by themselves. Aspen color does not vary nearly as much as the rich reds and purple leaves of the Midwest and East, but there is something about gold leaves against a backdrop of rich evergreen and deep blue sky that makes our fall mountains special indeed!

Historically, native tribes used the aspen bark to make medicinal teas to alleviate fever. The inner bark was sometimes eaten raw in the spring, and the outer bark occasionally produces a powder that was used as a sunscreen. Aspen is a favorite of Colorado wildlife too. Beaver use aspen for food and building; elk, moose, and deer eat the twigs and foliage. Other names for quaking aspen are golden aspen, mountain aspen, popple, poplar and trembling poplar.

Many people have asked why we have had such a wet summer and if it has anything to do with climate change. The basic answer is no - the wet summer of 2009 does not negate the long term outlook of hotter and drier weather for the west. The impact of man made climate change is on a very long time scale and cannot be assigned to any particular storm or short term weather event. We have had a wet summer because of the jetstream conditions this year. The winds aloft have been very active and have brought a greater than normal amount of thunderstorm activity to the Rocky Mountain region. Our soils were full of moisture which meant more evaporation and thus, more thunderstorms.

The wet weather has help refill our reservoirs and greatly decrease the need for urban irrigation. The cooler weather has also meant less need for air conditioning and thus a lower energy usage - all good news for this season. Over the long term, however, the increase in carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases will mean a gradual warming of the annual temperature for the western United States in particular and the world in general. It is incorrect to try and correlate temperature trends over a matter of months or even a few years with the trends expected over the course of decades.

One of the additional factors in our wet weather across Colorado and surrounding states has been the shift from a cool La Niña pattern in the Pacific to a warmer El Niño condition. After three years, a fledgling El Niño has developed and is expected to last through this winter. The last El Niño was back in 2006 and while it brought drenching storms to the West Coast, Colorado didn't feel as many effects as it normally would. This new El Niño is still very weak, but it may still have a fairly profound impact on our weather in the coming months.

As we enter the season of Autumn, the weather will likely continue to be slightly wet across eastern Colorado and New Mexico as the El Niño tends to inspire a stronger flow of moisture into the southwestern United States. Keep in mind, however, that the early fall weather pattern is not particularly stormy, so the amount of precipitation may only be an inch or two through October.

The term El Niño became familiar to the public's ear back in the early 1980s when a very strong El Niño event during the winter of 1982-1983 hit California with heavy, wet storms causing flooding and mudslides. El Niño typically occurs every two to five years and usually lasts for 12 months.

El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors such as the time of the year and how much the ocean temperature increases. This change in ocean temperature can cause a variety of effects. El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, bring much needed winter precipitation to the arid Southwestern states, more mild winters in the North, and can decrease the risk of wildfires in Florida.

In Colorado, we typically see the most significant changes in the Southwest and Central Mountains where they tend to receive increased amounts of winter precipitation. On the Eastern Plains, the winters are usually more mild and the Spring has an increase in precipitation. In late summer, we often see an increase in monsoonal moisture giving us more storms through those dry months. Although in Autumn, El Niño is not usually very noticeable, although the big snowstorm in October of 1997 was during an El Niño year!

In a El Niño diagnostic discussion released recently by the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, scientists noted that eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the beginning of July. From this, NOAA expects this El Niño event to continue developing over the next few months, with further strengthening possible.

According to Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado- CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA-ESRL Physical Science Division, we were under weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions since fall of 2008. These conditions continued through last winter keeping Colorado dry and mild. Over the summer, however, conditions have changed toward a weak El Niño pattern in the Pacific. The current status of the El Niño / La Niña pattern could be considered "neutral", as the transition takes place. Many Colorado observations from the past few decades indicate that even a neutral condition tends to bring more moisture to Colorado.

If you would like to see more information from Klaus Wolter and his Executive Summary check out the Earth System Research Laboratory Web page.

For more details on El Niño, you can check out NOAA's El Niño site at http://www.elnino.noaa.gov

For more information about aspen leaves, El Nino, climate change and Colorado, please check out a copy of my book - THE COLORADO WEATHER ALMANAC. I cover these topics in much more thorough detail. THE COLORADO WEATHER ALMANAC is available at most local bookstores or you can search and order it from Amazon.com.

August 27, 2009

With August winding down and the weather on a rare string of quiet days, the time is finally available to look back and take stock after one of the busiest severe weather seasons in Colorado history.

Tornadoes, hail, heavy rains, high winds... they all played havoc with the city over the last several months. Insurance agencies across the state recorded some of the highest insurance claim totals ever for a single summer.

With all the events, its hard to go back and list them all, but two will stand out for years to come for Denver-area residents.

On the afternoon of Sunday, June 7, several tornadoes touched down across the metro area. The biggest, most notable of them was in southeast Denver and hit the Southlands Mall. This tornado was rated EF-1 from the damage it did around the mall area. The storm responsible for this tornado also spawned several other weaker tornadoes east of town as the storm moved east along an outflow boundary.

Later in the summer, a very significant wind event occured in a rare nighttime storm over western Denver. Just after 10:30pm on July 20, a very strong thunderstorm rapidly developed just north of Arvada and tore south across the western suburbs of Denver doing extensive damage to trees and buildings along and west of Kipling from Arvada south into Lakewood. This storm was responsible for the second highest single storm damage totals in Colorado history. A couple of brief tornadoes were reported in Wheat Ridge, Englewood, and Castle Rock, but the majority of the damage was from straight line winds that likely reached speeds over 90 m.p.h.

Denver wasn't the only location in the state to get hammered this year. Not long after the Wheat Ridge storm, Pueblo took the brunt of a hailstorm that dropped baseball sized hail across the downtown area. Residents all across eastern Colorado had several episodes of heavy hail and tornadoes all throughout the late Spring and early summer.

Severe weather season is on the downhill side, however it is not out of the question to see a couple more events before cooler and quieter weather settles in. Tornadoes have occured in the Denver area as late as October, but the threat will typically subside in early September.

The severe weather of the summer kept our storm chasers very busy all season. Storm Chaser Tony Laubach tallied over 30,000 miles, two-dozen tornadoes, and enough hail to fill an ocean. He has kept a detailed log of his travels on his blog, and includes a very in-depth analysis of the July 20 storm which he chased. You can view his blog here. Storm Chasers Verne Carlson, Roger Hill, and Tim Samaras also kept extremely busy with the record severe weather year. You can check out all their adventures on their blogs linked above.

August 19, 2009

THERE ARE SEVERAL EVENTS COMING TO THE DENVER AREA THAT YOU SHOULD NOT MISS!

The 2009 Colorado Renewable Energy Conference - August 28-30 at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden - is fast approaching. This conference is open to the public and will include presentations on cleaner energy, sustainability, bio-fuels, photo voltaic and wind energy systems.

The keynote address will be given by Dr. Eric Barron - Director of The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). I will be the featured dinner speaker for the event.

The Conference web page is www.cres-energy.org/conference - with all of the most up-to-date Conference information.

HERE ARE SOME UPCOMING OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN MORE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

In preparation for the next UN Climate Change talks (COP15), the Danish Board of Technology and The Danish Cultural Institute are organizing a world-wide public deliberation about climate change and climate change policy. On September 26, 2009 - from sites in over 40 countries on every continent, citizens will deliberate and vote on some of the questions negotiated at COP15.

The idea is that because citizens of the world have to live with global warming and future climate policy, they should be consulted before political decision-makers negotiate at COP15. One of the US sites (there are five) is being sponsored by the Colorado School of Mines in Golden. Sandy Woodson, Division of Liberal Arts and International Studies Undergraduate Advisor and Senior Lecturer, is the Project Manager - according to Woodson, "we need 100 citizens who are demographically representative of the metro area and there is no better way to reach a large number of people than if you would announce this event."

The Danes have named this project "World Wide Views on Global Warming" (see www.wwviews.org), and the intention is to provide COP negotiators with our findings.

If you are interested in participating in this important event, please contact Sandy Woodson at (swoodson@mines.edu).

IMPORTANT UPCOMING EVENTS AT THE DENVER MUSEUM OF NATURE AND SCIENCE!

HERE ARE SOME FUTURE CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS...

The Denver Museum of Nature & Science hopes to inspire critical thinkers who understand the lessons of the past and act as responsible stewards of the future. In support of this vision, the Museum offers a variety of adult programs that connect credible experts and scientists to popular science topics. The following programs and events relate to the topic of climate change.

GET TO KNOW YOUR ENERGY SOURCES

The average Colorado household uses 600 to 900 kilowatt-hours of electricity each month. This field trip takes participants along the Front Range to explore local sources for this energy. Stops include Cherokee Station in Denver, where low-sulfur coal is turned into energy; the new Vestas plant in Windsor, which manufactures 65-foot blades for wind turbines; Ponnequin Wind Farm in northern Colorado, the state's first commercial wind factory; and New Belgium Brewery in Fort Collins, a pioneer in sustainability that is 90 percent wind-powered.

Field trip led by geologist Bob Raynolds, PhD, a research associate in the Museum's Earth Sciences Department 8:30 a.m.–8:30 p.m. on September 9. $75 for members, $105 for nonmembers. Call 303.322.7009 for reservations

KENJI WILLIAMS PRESENTS "BELLA GAIA" (BEAUTIFUL EARTH)

Award-winning director and musician Kenji Williams presents Bella Gaia, a spectacular audio and visual journey around the world. The production is inspired by emotional response of astronauts after seeing the Earth from space. Experience a stunning simulation of the views from space—from fires in the Amazon to time-lapse images of the arctic ice melt—enhanced by Williams' live classical violin performance.

Live musical performance with stunning visuals 8 p.m. on September 17, 18 and 19 $20 for members, $25 for nonmembers. Call 303.322.7009 for reservations

COLORADO AND CLIMATE CHANGE

This course evaluates global climate change and its impact on Colorado. Participants examine water resources, biodiversity, and the challenges associated with ongoing changes in the landscape.

Course and field trip led by geologist Bob Raynolds, PhD, a research associate in the Museum's Earth Sciences Department 6:30–8:30 p.m. on Tuesdays and Thursdays, September 29 through October 8; all day on Saturday, October 10 $150 for members, $180 for nonmembers. Call 303.322.7009 for reservations

The Denver Museum of Nature & Science is the Rocky Mountain Region's leading resource for informal science education. A variety of engaging exhibits, discussions and activities help Museum visitors celebrate and understand the natural wonders of Colorado, Earth and the universe. The Museum is located at 2001 Colorado Blvd., Denver, CO, 80205. To learn more about the Museum, check www.dmns.org or call 303-322-7009.

SOME THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS ON OUR RECENT WEATHER AND OUR CHANGING CLIMATE

Many people have asked why we have had such a cool and wet summer and if it has anything to do with climate change. The basic answer is no - the wet summer of 2009 does not negate the long term outlook of hotter and drier weather for the west. The impact of man made climate change is on a very long time scale and cannot be assigned to any particular storm or short term weather event. We are having a wet summer because of the jetstream conditions this year. The winds aloft have been very active and have brought a greater than normal amount of thunderstorm activity to the Rocky Mountain region. Our soils are now full of moisture which lends itself to more evaporation and thus, more thunderstorms. It is a wet cycle, similar to when we get into a periodic drought cycle.

It is worth noting that not all of the western United States has had a cool, wet summer. In fact, the Pacific Northwest has had a very hot and dry summer, with extensive wildfire issues. This problem extends well into western Canada, where hundreds of thousands of acres have burned. Meanwhile, in the southwestern United States, Las Vegas just sweltered through their fourth hottest July on record.

The wet weather in Colorado has help refill our reservoirs and greatly decrease the need for urban irrigation. The cooler weather has also meant less need for air conditioning and thus a lower energy usage - all good news for this season. Over the long term, however, the increase in carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases will mean a gradual warming of the annual temperature for the western United States in particular and the world in general. It is incorrect to try and correlate temperature trends over a matter of months or even a few years with the trends expected over the course of decades.

For more information about climate change and Colorado, please check out a copy of my book - THE COLORADO WEATHER ALMANAC. I cover this topic in much more thorough detail in chapter six of the book. THE COLORADO WEATHER ALMANAC is available at most local bookstores or you can search and order it from Amazon.com.

EL NINO AND LA NINA

One of the additional factors in our wet weather across Colorado and surrounding states has been the shift from a cool La Niña pattern in the Pacific to a warmer El Niño condition.

After three years, a fledgling El Niño has returned and is expected to last through this winter. The last El Niño was back in 2006 and while it brought drenching storms to the West Coast, Colorado didn't feel as many effects as it normally would. This new El Niño is still very weak, but it may still have a fairly profound impact on our weather in the coming months.

In a El Niño diagnostic discussion released recently by the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, scientists noted that eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. From this, NOAA expects this El Niño event to continue developing over the next few months, with further strengthening possible.

According to Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado- CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA-ESRL Physical Science Division, we have been under weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions since fall of 2008. These conditions continued through the winter keeping Colorado dry and mild. Over the past eight weeks, however, conditions have changed toward an El Niño pattern in the Pacific. The current status of the El Niño / La Niña pattern could be considered "neutral", as the transition takes place. Many Colorado observations from the past few decades indicate that a neutral condition brings more moisture to Colorado.

If you would like to see more information from Klaus Wolter and his Executive Summary check out the Earth System Research Laboratory Web page.

For more information on El Niño, you can check out NOAA's El Niño site at http://www.elnino.noaa.gov

CLIMATE CHANGE - A LESSON IN PHYSICAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCE

The topic of climate change has been given much political attention and in that light, there is a seemingly large controversy about what is happening and to what extent mankind is helping to cause some of the changes.

In the strict world of truly peer reviewed science, the degree of controversy is not as great as some politically driven organizations would have you believe.

There is an often quoted issue of 1997 being the warmest year and that global temperatures have cooled since that time. This information is misleading. In 1997, the world climate was influenced by one of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded. This pool of very warm Pacific Ocean water bumped global temperatures higher. At the present time, the Pacific is just emerging from a La Nina - cooler sea surface temperatures. These periodic warming and cooling episodes need to be taken into consideration in the the overall global temperature trend.

There is much discussion, especially on talk radio about the fact that the sun has by far the largest impact on our climate. The sun has certainly not been overlooked by the many experts worldwide that contributed to the most recent IPCC Assessment on climate. The periodic changes in solar output and the orbital changes are taken into account in the climate studies and modeling.

Another comment often heard is that CO2 is just a tiny fraction of the atmosphere. Just because CO2 is a trace gas does not mean that it is not important in the equation. Small amounts do matter - I weigh 200 pounds, but it certainly does not take 200 pounds of arsenic to kill me.

The majority of climate scientists are in agreement that the overall warming of the planet (about 1.4 degrees Farhenheit since 1900), has been caused in part by mankind. This warming is due to the increase of so called "greenhouse gases" - such as CO2, methane and CFCs (chloro-fluorocarbons). These gases absorb outgoing heat from our planet and "reflect" it back to Earth. When this happens, energy from the Sun is trapped in our atmosphere and warms our climate.

As often noted, the Greenhouse Effect is normal and natural, in fact if not for this effect, the Earth would be about 60 degrees Farenheit colder - a lifeless ice planet. The problem we face is that the delicate balance of temperature may be upset by a change in atmospheric chemistry. In the past 200 years (since the Industrial Revolution) the increased burning of fossil fuels has released vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 has risen about 25% in the past two centuries from 280 parts per million to over 385 parts per million. Human activity releases about seven billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the air every year - adding to the 750 billion metric tons that are already there. Of the 7 billion tons, only about three billion tons stays in the atmosphere; the rest is absorbed by plants and the oceans. This "carbon sink" capacity complicates the issue of global warming, because the oceans have had a vast holding capacity for CO2. The oceans are becoming more acidic, however, and there is concern that this carbon sink capacity may reach a limit.

Some scientists feel that the increase in atmospheric CO2 will be offset by the ability of plants and the oceans to absorb this gas. In fact, some experts believe that the increase in CO2 will be a good thing - improving crop yields and making more parts of the world able to support crops. At the same time, others worry that warming will cause more severe droughts in key agricultural areas. In addition, which plants will benefit most - will it be useful crops, or weeds!

The issue is not a simple one because we must use computer models to predict future climate. These models are very complicated and must be run on a supercomputer. Even with today's technology, we cannot perfectly model something as complex as our atmosphere, so the models are simplified and do have errors. One of the undisputable facts is "we cannot even predict tomorrow's weather with 100% accuracy, how can we expect to predict the weather for the next 100 years! Of course, we are not attempting to forecast day to day weather that far in advance, just trends. There is no way to run an actual atmospheric simulation of the changes to come as we only have this one Earth - there isn't another similar planet nearby to run actual experiments.

In the Rocky Mountains, the long term impact of a warming of the climate will likely mean hotter, drier summers and milder, but still perhaps stormy winters. The amount of snowfall may drop on the plains, aside from infrequent major blizzards, while the mountains may see the snow levels and the tree level rise to higher elevations. The biggest worry that climate scientists have is that the weather will become more extreme - more heatwaves, drought, but also more flash floods and severe local storms. These events have always been with us, but the concern is that they will occur with greater regularity.

Here are a few websites to check out.

www.globalwarming.org

www.epa.gov/globalwarming/

www.realclimate.org

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071213_climateupdate.html

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlPath=broadcastmet/climate&go_back_to=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.meted.ucar.edu%252Fbroadcastmet%252Fclimate%252Findex.htm#

August 6, 2009

During the course of this very busy storm season, I appreciate the many comments on our rather frequent television program interruptions due to the severe weather. We have had so much thunderstorm, hail and tornado activity lately, that we have had to break into programming much more often than usual and often for extended periods of time.

The storms have been quite severe over Colorado, with numerous reports of hail, lightning and tornadoes. In light of the Windsor Tornado in 2008 and the damaging tornado that touched down in southeast Aurora on June 6th and the major hail and wind storm over the western metro area on July 20th, many local residents, especially children, are very anxious about the weather.

In regard to a decision to cut to local weather coverage, instead of regular programming, we have had a number of viewers write in to express their feeling both ways. In general, when the storms are near that viewer's community, they are very grateful, but if the skies are not threatening overhead, it may seem to that viewer that we are going overboard on the coverage.

During the past several weeks, I have received quite a few e-mails from viewers that have tuned into 7News instead of the other local TV stations because that station was not covering the storm sufficiently. It can be a tough call, but especially after Windsor and the Holly Tornado in 2007, we want to make sure that all of our viewers get the latest information on these powerful and sometimes deadly storms.

The next few days look as though they will stay rather busy, with more thunderstorms likely across the Denver area and the eastern plains through Friday. A weak cold front will slide through the state FRiday night and that should bring in slightly cooler and drier air, lessening the chances for severe storms.

I am looking forward to this weather pattern settling down a bit, so that we can all better enjoy the more pleasant side of Colorado in the summertime as well as enjoy the regular programming on ABC.

July 31- August 2, 2009

After several very cool days, the weather pattern will return to much more typical mid summer form across Colorado. The chilly northwest flow in the upper atmosphere that brought October-like conditions to late July is shifting to a more westerly flow. Warmer air will shift back across the region through the first part of August and temperatures will bounce back to normal.

Drier weather will cover the region for Sunday through Tuesday, but by Wednesday there will be a return to thunderstorms as the "monsoon flow" is expected to develop across the southwestern United States. This should mean more thunderstorms and locally heavy rain in our forecast.

Many people have asked why we have had such a wet summer and if it has anything to do with climate change. The basic answer is no - the wet summer of 2009 does not negate the long term outlook of hotter and drier weather for the west. The impact of man made climate change is on a very long time scale and cannot be assigned to any particular storm or short term weather event. We are having a wet summer because of the jetstream conditions this year. The winds aloft have been very active and have brought a greater than normal amount of thunderstorm activity to the Rocky Mountain region. Our soils are now full of moisture which lends itself to more evaporation and thus, more thunderstorms. It is a wet cycle, similar to when we get into a periodic drought cycle.

One of the additional factors in our wet weather across Colorado and surrounding states has been the shift from a cool La Niña pattern in the Pacific to a warmer El Niño condition.

The next four to six weeks will likely continue to be rather wet across eastern Colorado and New Mexico as the El Niño tends to inspire a stronger flow on monsoon moisture into the southwestern United States. This may bring us heavy showers and thunderstorms through August.

In a El Niño diagnostic discussion released recently by the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, scientists noted that eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. From this, NOAA expects this El Niño event to continue developing over the next few months, with further strengthening possible.

If you would like to see more information from Klaus Wolter and his Executive Summary check out the Earth System Research Laboratory Web page.

For more information on El Niño, you can check out NOAA's El Niño site at http://www.elnino.noaa.gov

July 23, 2009

We might be taking a break from all the severe weather, but the unusual weather pattern will hardly subside. This summer has been a wild one, from late night tornadoes to hail drifts several feet deep. Another change is expected to move through the area in the coming days.

Through Friday the weather will be very warm in the Denver Metro area with highs climbing into the lower 90s. A high pressure building over southwestern Colorado will allow for a dry and hot weather trend over the next couple of days. However, back to back cold fronts are going to make their presence by Saturday with a cool down on the way.

The first cold front will dive across the state early Saturday bringing a chance for storms, and slightly cooler temperatures. On Monday afternoon, a stronger cold front will make its way across the region dropping temperatures some 10-15 degrees by Wednesday. Some wet weather will accmpany these cooler temperatures as showers and thunderstorms will develop as the cooler air moves into the region.

The coolest weather will settle into the Front Range on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cool Canadian airmass will sweep across the northern plains and will bring a brief taste of fall to Colorado for the middle of next week. Highs will stay in the 60s and 70s over the northern mountains and adjacent plains, with nighttime lows dipping into the 40s to low 50s.

By the end of next week, the weather will return to typical late July - early August conditions with temperatures bouncing back to near 90. We are still watching for the advent of the "monsoon season". So far, that flow of tropical moisture is not yet apparent from Mexico across the desert southwest.

July 21, 2009

The wild weather that roared through Denver and vicinity late last night was caused by a rotating thunderstorm called a "supercell". We get this type of storm along the eastern plains every summer, but they are rare near the Denver area, due to our proximity to the mountains. It was especially rare to have a supercell form after 10 PM. A passing cold front, combined with an upper air disturbance helped to power laast night's storm.

Most tornadoes form from these large rotating thunderstorms. These monster storms tend to develop ahead of cold fronts that push southward from Canada across the central U.S. As the fronts sag into the warm and humid air that covers the southern plains, the colder air wedges under the warm air, creating lift. The lifted air rises up to form thunderstorms that can rapidly grow to heights of 40 to 50 thousand feet above the ground.

The storm pushes high into the sky, reaching into the jet stream - the band or river of fast moving air that flows around the world. It is the increase in wind speed with height that causes the thunderstorm to begin a large, slow counterclockwise rotation. This rotating thunderstorm is what is classified as a "supercell".

Once the supercell storm develops, the best analogy for thinking about how the tornado forms is to think of a figure skater doing a spin. The skater starts with their arms out, and is rotating rather slowly. As the skater brings their arms in, the rotation begins to speed up. In physics, this is called "the conservation of angular momentum". The rotation gets faster and faster as the size of the rotating column grows narrower. This is a very simplistic description, but eventually this narrow rapidly rotating column of air will drop to the ground as a tornado.

Tornadoes are classified by the wind damage that they cause. The original scale was developed by Dr. Ted Fujita from the University of Chicago. Dr. Fujita based his "F scale" on a 0 to 5 basis for tornadoes. The F0 is a weak tornado, while the F5 storms are the most powerful winds ever observed on Earth.

F0 - up to 72 mph - light damage F1 - 73 to 112 mph - moderate damage F2 - 113 to 157 mph - considerable damage F3 - 158 to 206 mph - severe damage F4 - 207 to 260 mph - devastating damage F5 - above 261 mph - incredible damage

About 70 % of the annual average of 1000 tornadoes nationwide are classified as F0 or F1.

About 28 % of all tornadoes fall into the F2 or F3 category.

Only about 2% of all tornadoes are classified as F4 or F5.

Often a severe weather season will come and go without a single F5 tornado reported.

However, about 80% of all tornadoes deaths are the result of the F3, F4 and F5 tornadoes. These storms are much less common, but much more dangerous.

As of 2007 this scale was replaced by the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. The EF attempts to rate tornadoes more accurately, taking into account that it often requires much lower wind speeds to create F5-like damage. The new EF scale is now the official standard to measure the strength of tornadoes.

EF 0 - 65 to 85 mph

EF 1 - 86 to 110 mph

EF 2 - 111 to 135 mph

EF 3 - 135 to 165 mph

EF 4 - 166 to 200 mph

EF 5 - Over 200 mph

Most tornadoes in the United States occur in the central plains, with the greatest likelihood of twisters in the southern plains around Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma. Colorado lies of the western fringe of "Tornado Alley", but our state still averages between 40 and 60 tornadoes per year.

The peak season for tornadoes is in the spring and early summer. From March through June, about 70% of all the tornadoes in a year will occur. This is due to the fact that the weather patterns that are needed for tornado development are most common in the spring and early summer.

Tornadoes are not named like hurricanes are, but the strong or deadly tornadoes are usually remembered for the town or location that they affected. For instance, the infamous "Xenia Ohio Tornado" of April 1974, or in Colorado, the "Limon Tornado" in June of 1990 and now the "Windsor Tornado" in 2008 and now "Denver's Late Night Tornado" in 2009!

Perhaps the single worst tornado on record was the great "Tri-State Tornado" of March 1925. This huge tornado started in southeastern Missouri and tore a path of destruction all across Illinois, before ending in western Indiana. The twister covered a distance of 219 miles and was on the ground for over 3 hours. In the days before adequate warnings, the storm caught everyone off guard. The Tri-State Tornado killed 689 people, injured over 2,000 and caused 17 million dollars in damage - a very large figure in 1925!

In Colorado, the peak season for tornadoes is in early June. At that time, the almost daily dose of thunderstorms can easily rise up to the jet stream level and begin to rotate into a super cell. These storms tend to form along the Front Range, roll over the Denver metro area and then really get severe over the eastern plains of the state. About 90% of all Colorado tornadoes occur east of I-25. Although tornadoes can form in the high country, the rough terrain tends to disrupt the rotation needed to form a supercell.

In my 30 years in meteorology, I have been through many tornado watch and warning situations. I have walked through a small town in southern Wisconsin, named Barneveld, just hours after it was ripped apart by an F5 tornado. Only one time have I seen a tornado, as most of the time I am right here in the 24/7 Weather Center issuing warnings and weather updates, so I do not get much of a chance to chase these storms. However, we do have a crew of storm chasers that go out in search of these deadly weather events and you can follow along with them as the blog for us here at Channel 7.

Tornadoes have done some very unusual things. The powerful winds can pick up a railroad locomotive, lift a water tower off the ground, and drive blades of grass into walls just like a hammer and a nail. At the same time, there have been reports where tornadoes have picked a refrigerator off the ground, tossed it several hundreds of yards, dropped it back on the ground and not even broken an egg inside the refrigerator!

Tornadoes usually form on the back edge of the thunderstorm cloud, meaning that most of the storm has already passed overhead. Often the rain, hail, thunder and lightning have mostly gone by and then the tornado occurs. That is why you will often see the sky looking very bright behind the tornado - a dramatic contrast to the very dark funnel. After the tornado, the sky often quickly clears as the storm moves away. There are, however, no hard and fast rules for tornados, so sometimes the twister occurs in the midst of a large area of thunderstorms, so after the tornado occurs, it just rains and rains.

I thought since we are on the subject of storms, you might like to have a little information about rain and hail, some things that usually accompany a tornado...

Here are a few facts about rain and hail. Most of the rain that we get in Colorado forms from a mix of water droplets and ice crystals in the clouds. Under certain conditions, water will remain in liquid form even with temperatures that are well below freezing. This type of water is called "super-cooled". In most of our summertime clouds, we have a mix of super-cooled water and ice crystals floating around high above us. The ice crystals rapidly grow as they "feed" off of the super-cooled water and they basically form big fat snowflakes. These snowflakes fall slowly to Earth and begin to melt as they reach warmer air closer to the ground. The resultant raindrops will fall to Earth at about 15-20 mph.

In stronger thunderstorms, the tiny ice crystal gets bombarded by the super-cooled water thanks to the extreme turbulence in the storm cloud. The ice crystal forms a small stone of ice which is the beginning of a hailstone. If the storm is quite strong, there are intense updrafts of wind that can keep the growing hailstone suspended in the cloud for a long time. A hailstone that is the size of a golf ball needs an updraft of nearly 60 mph to stay aloft. A baseball sized stone requires a 100 mph updraft to keep it "afloat".

When the hail falls to Earth, they come zipping down at 70 to 100 mph. That is why it is a good idea to stay indoors during a major hailstorm!

You can still go to King Soopers and get a special WEATHER ALERT RADIO. The radio will signal when there is a storm nearby. If the radio stays quiet, there is nothing to worry about. Most of the local stores will still have these radios in stock, but if not, you can get the radios from our website.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/alertradios/index.html.

I also have a book in the bookstores that will provide even more information about tornadoes. The book is titled THE COLORADO WEATHER ALMANAC and it is available in most bookstores or from Amazon.com

July 20, 2009

Our recent hot weather is going to change for a few days. A cold front passed through northern Colorado overnight. This front will drop temperatures across much of Colorado for the next two days; we should see close to a ten degree temperature difference between Monday and Tuesday.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms in the foothills and mountains due to the northeasterly winds behind this front. This upslope condition will be the main cause for any storms late in the day. On the eastern plains, the weather will be much calmer, a nice break from the stormy pattern that has dominated the area for most of the summer.

So far, July has been significantly drier than the month of June. We have seen 1.24 inches of precipitation so far this month. The average is about 1.37 inches, meaning Denver is 0.13 inches below normal. Despite the lack of moisture this month we are still 2.16 inches above average for the year. Typically Denver has seen 9.46 inches of precipitation by this point in the year. For 2009, we have seen 11.62 inches of precipitation leaving us well above average for the year.

How does the rest of July look? The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the rest of the month is expecting very seasonal temperatures. This means Denver will see mid to upper 80s for high temperatures, and mid to upper 50s for overnight lows. For moisture, we can anticipate above average precipitation for the Denver metro area and the eastern plains for the rest of July. Extra moisture should make up for the 0.13 we are behind.

This year Denver's July looks to become a very average month. Not contributing to the extra precipitation we have seen this year, but not negating it either.

With El Niño building in the Pacific the extra moisture could continue into the Fall and potentially bring lots of snow for this winter.

July 16-19, 2009

Mid July is typically the warmest time of the year in Colorado. Our average high temperatures are in the high 80s to low 90s in the Denver area, with upper 70s to mid 80s in the high country. The next few days will fill that billing, warm and comfortable conditions under mostly sunny skies. There will be some widely scattered thunderstorms in the forecast each day through the weekend. The storms will generally develop in the mid to late afternoon and should be diminishing after sunset. Rain chances will not be very high - only in the 20-30% range and most of the storms will be moderate - not severe.

The jet stream winds are blowing down from the northwest across the central Rockies, so most of our thunderstorms will drift from the northwest to the southeast at about 20 mph. The airmass over Colorado is pretty warm at higher levels, so the risk of large hail from the storms will be low, but some storms will produce some brief very heavy rain. Probably the biggest weather threat will be from the lightning, so be careful when the dark skies are near.

Despite the recent wet weather, the fire danger has been slowly increasing over Colorado. The western half of the state is the driest and there have been a couple of wildfires reported west of the Divide. All of the rain during the past several weeks has lead to a lush growth of grass and underbrush. As these plants mature, they will dry out and become much more likely to burn. Do not be lulled into thinking that the risk of wildfire will stay low for the rest of this summer. Despite the storms, be very careful with any outdoor burning, especially in western Colorado.

Our annual "monsoon pattern" should be developing by the end of the month. Just about every summer we get a rich flow of moisture moving north from the Pacific Ocean across Mexico and into the southwestern states. This pattern is what we call our "monsoon" and it often brings some very heavy rainfall to Colorado by the end of July and through much of August. The current northwest flow aloft is blocking this monsoon pattern, so our thunderstorms over the next 5 to 7 days will be smaller and will not produce widespread heavy rainfall.

Typical of summertime in Colorado, we will enjoy the mild and sunny mornings, dodge the drops in the afternoon, watch out for lightning, and worry about both fire and rain!

July 15, 2009

After a very stormy start to July, things will be drying out during the next week. A cold front moved in late Tuesday, making conditions less moist and decreasing the chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain pleasant, in the upper 80s and low 90s throughout the rest of the work week.

Skies are a little hazy in the wake of the cold front, the airmass that has moved into Colorado may have brought just a little dust and smoke from southern Canada - perhaps from some distant forest fires. Nonetheless, it will be a pretty day today and very comfortable with highs in the 80s.

The weekend looks nice and sunny. Although there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, conditions will still be much drier than they have been recently, so it is a great time to get outside and enjoy the nice July weather. The next week is looking just as pleasant, with temperatures remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s and more sunny skies!

As discussed in the former entry, El Niño has returned and will be affecting our weather patterns as we head toward August. With temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rising, the monsoon season will be strenghthened, bringing wet weather back to Colorado soon enough. Enjoy the drier days while you can, because thunderstorms will be frequenting your forecast again come August.

July 10-12, 2009

After three years, El Niño has returned and is expected to last through this winter. The last El Niño was back in 2006 and while it brought drenching storms to the West Coast, Colorado didn't feel as many effects as it normally would.

In the monthly El Niño diagnostic discussion released today by the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, scientists noted that eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. From this, NOAA expects this El Niño event to continue developing over the next few months, with further strengthening possible.

According to Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado- CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA-ESRL Physical Science Division, we have been under weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions since fall of 2008. These conditions continued through the winter keeping Colorado dry and mild. Over the past four weeks, however, conditions have changed toward an El Niño pattern in the Pacific. The current status of the El Niño / La Niña pattern could be considered "neutral", as the transition takes place. Many Colorado observations from the past few decades indicate that a neutral condition brings more moisture to Colorado.

If you would like to see more information from Klaus Wolter and his Executive Summary check out the Earth System Research Laboratory Web page.

For more information on El Niño, you can check out NOAA's El Niño site at http://www.elnino.noaa.gov or you can pick up my book, "Colorado Weather Almanac" at any bookstore or on Amazon.com.

July 9, 2009

Temperatures reached the 90 degree mark on Wednesday, a rare feat for this summer season. In an average year, the Denver area will hit ninety degrees 33 times. The record for the most days of 90 degrees or higher was in 2000, when we soared to the nineties 61 times! Not much chance of reaching that level in 2009, as the stormy weather pattern has kept the temperatures cooler than average.

The weather will be a bit cooler over the next 24 to 48 hours, thanks to a weak cold front that has slipped into the northern half of Colorado. This front will stall over the area and help to stir up afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Friday. With the increased cloud cover, the readings will stay in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

By the weekend, the front will weaken even further and move to the east of Colorado. Temperatures will rebound a bit as highs return to the low 90s Saturday through early next week. Rain chances will be low this weekend, unlike the soggy scenario we had over the Fourth of July Holiday.

Despite the warmer and drier pattern, we have had plenty of moisture and the landscape is lush and green along the Front Range. In that light, be careful to not get carried away with watering your lawn or garden. The folks at Denver Water want to remind you to "only use what you need". Water your lawn only 2-3 times per week and try to cut back on the watering time for each zone. Watering each zone for two minutes less can save an amazing amount of water - a billion gallons if every Denver Water customer followed those guidelines!

July 8, 2009

This work week brings pleasant temperatures and drier weather back to your forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and 90s throughout most of the week. Chances of thunderstorms will remain slight through Wednesday evening. Those storms will probably return for a bit on Thursday and Friday but with temperatures remaining warm, conditions will dry back out just in time for a beautiful weekend!

The storms that do fire on Thursday and Friday will be due to a weak cold front rolling through the area Thursday morning. The front will bring along more moisture and lift, which will help to generate the storms. The temperatures will see a change to the cooler side with highs on Thursday reaching into the upper 80s. Friday will see a return to the 90s with a slight chance of storms in the afternoon. The weekend will see a warm and dry reunion tour with highs topping out in the lower 90s.

After a soggy June and a similar start to July, our weather pattern will be drying out, at least for the next few days. The rains washed out a few Independence Day celebrations around the state, but things are set for a change toward sun and heat. A large ridge of high pressure will be influencing our weather for the upcoming week. There was another round of severe thunderstorms on Monday, but the trend will be a return to the usually toasty early July weather. Why have we had such a cool, wet Spring and early Summer? Perhaps we can attribute it to the apparent transition currently taking place from La Niña to El Niño conditions.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, (the opposite of El Niño), related to changes in trade wind patterns. According to Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado- CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA-ESRL Physical Science Division, we have been under weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions since fall of 2008. These conditions continued through the winter keeping Colorado dry and mild. Over the past four weeks, however, conditions have changed toward an El Niño pattern in the Pacific. The current status of the El Niño / La Niña pattern could be considered "neutral", as the transition takes place. Many Colorado observations from the past few decades indicate that a neutral condition brings more moisture to Colorado.

Keep in mind that El Niño / La Niña is suspected to influence the overall climate and should not be used to predict short-term local weather.

Wolter says that our recent weather has many features of an early monsoon - the seasonal flow of moist air from Arizona, New Mexico and Mexico. It appears that similar conditions will continue for our area into July. Wolter believes that eastern New Mexico to eastern Colorado will experience a slightly enhanced amount of precipitation for the next couple weeks. For the coming week though, strong high pressure will be in charge.

It's anyone's guess if El Niño will become the dominant force on our weather for the next few months into Fall. However if El Niño is here to stay through the rest of the year we can expect a much wetter more snow-filled winter for 2009-10. This would be especially true for the central and southwestern mountain areas.

If you would like to see more information from Klaus Wolter and his Executive Summary check out the Earth System Research Laboratory webpage.

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Daily almanac - Columbus Dispatch

Posted: 06 Nov 2009 01:03 AM PST

Today is Friday, Nov. 6, the 310th day of 2009. There are 55 days left in the year.

Highlights in History

• On Nov. 6, 1934, Nebraska voters approved a constitutional amendment that dissolved their two-chamber legislature in favor of a nonpartisan, single legislative body (or unicameral), which was implemented in 1937.

• In 1860, former Illinois Congressman Abraham Lincoln defeated three other candidates for the presidency: John Breckinridge, John Bell and Stephen Douglas.

• In 1906, Republican Charles Evans Hughes was elected governor of New York, defeating newspaper publisher William Randolph Hearst.

• In 1928, in a first, the results of Herbert Hoover's election victory over Democrat Alfred E. Smith were flashed onto an electric wraparound sign on the New York Times Building.

• In 1956, President Eisenhower won re-election, defeating Democrat Adlai E. Stevenson.

• Ten years ago: During his visit to India, Pope John Paul II praised Christian missionaries and exhorted his bishops to spread the Christian message across Asia.

• Five years ago: An Ivory Coast airstrike killed nine French peacekeepers and an American aid worker, prompting France to wipe out the country's modest air force within hours.

• One year ago: President-elect Barack Obama spoke by phone to nine world leaders and met privately at the FBI office in Chicago with U.S. intelligence officials, preparing to become commander in chief.

Thought for Today

"When writers come, I find I'm talking all the time, exchanging thoughts I haven't exchanged for some time. I get stupid in solitude." -- Mary McCarthy, American author (1912-89)

Source: Associated Press

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Cataloging the barn stars of Penna. - Philadelphia Inquirer

Posted: 06 Nov 2009 12:49 AM PST

KUTZTOWN, Pa. - Stars. Not hex signs, but stars.

Patrick Donmoyer, 23, has spent more than a year documenting and photographing 400 examples of such celestial iconography, a form of folk art painted on Pennsylvania barns over the last three centuries.

To Donmoyer, these stars matter as emblems of Pennsylvania German cultural identity.

He is a true fan, albeit an academic one, who also believes that what these artistic creations are actually called matters for reasons of historical accuracy and meaning.

Donmoyer is originally from Lebanon County, about 20 miles east of Harrisburg. He now lives about 10 miles northeast of Reading, near Fleetwood in Rockland Township, Berks County, just over 50 miles east of Harrisburg and just under 50 miles northwest of Philadelphia.

Donmoyer works at the nearby Pennsylvania German Cultural Heritage Center at Kutztown University, about five miles north of his new home.

A 2009 graduate of Kutztown University, majoring in studio art and fine craft and minoring in Pennsylvania German studies, he has received a $5,000 research scholarship from the Peter Wentz Farmstead Society, based in Worcester, less than 20 miles northwest of Philadelphia.

While his current focus is the Berks County area that surrounds Reading, he hopes to eventually expand his study of barn stars into neighboring counties and publish a book that could be easily enjoyed by the public.

Standing on the academic shoulders of earlier Pennsylvania German scholars, Alfred Shoemaker and Don Yoder, in particular, Donmoyer credits them as figures who inspired him on a mission to catalog barn stars.

"In Pennsylvania, we are experiencing enormous shifts in our local landscape, and many historical and culturally significant features are rapidly disappearing," Donmoyer said. "As our landscape shifts, so does our cultural heritage and beliefs. The most threatened aspects of the landscape are the historic farms because of development."

Through his work, Donmoyer hopes to help preserve and share the artistic beauty of barn stars and educate others about a type of folk art that often has been clouded by controversy.

"The problem is we don't have primary sources on the true meaning and content of these elaborate designs that were painted on barns," Donmoyer said, sitting outside at a picnic table and in front of the Sharidan family barn (circa 1855), boasting a stone foundation and timber-framed, red-painted walls adorned with stars. The barn is near Kutztown University, in Maxatawny Township.

Popularized as hex signs in the early 20th century, the barn stars were associated with the idea of protecting barns from witchcraft and became a commercial commodity in promoting the geographic area for tourists, according to Donmoyer.

"Meanings were invented to attract customers, and this invented lore assigned a specific meaning to each design such as 'protection,' 'fertility,' 'love and romance,' etc.," Donmoyer said. "This perception has tainted the genuine lore of the designs and their true implications."

To counteract the invented history of the so-called hex signs, Pennsylvania German scholars promoted the idea that the folk art was done "just for nice" and served as purely decorative with no particular meaning, glossing over, in Donmoyer's view, the celestial and religious iconography on barn stars that would often date to the late 18th century.

"I attempt to answer the question of why an agricultural society, such as the Pennsylvania Germans, favored symbols and icons which feature celestial images such as suns, moons, and stars," Donmoyer said, "that could also be embellished with flowers or crosses."

For Donmoyer, the barn stars are actually an artistic reflection of early Pennsylvania German beliefs, a complex mixture of mystical Christianity accompanied by a practical folk-religious orientation that governed daily living.

"The stars were seen as beacons of celestial order, which allow us an understanding of the passage of time and the progression of human activities which are governed by the stars," Donmoyer said. "It is well-documented that the Pennsylvania Germans orchestrated their planting, harvesting, and tilling to the phase of the moon and the astrological signs.

"Almanacs informed farmers which times were best for all manner of agricultural activities such as planting, cutting wood, driving fence posts, building houses, and storing food."

Donmoyer said use of the stars applied not only to outdoor agricultural activity, but also to domestic and interpersonal affairs - everything from the best timing to bake bread and make vinegar to the opportune period to get married and have children.

One can imagine Pennsylvania Germans transfixed by a nighttime heaven of twinkling light as opposed to modern-day families mesmerized by those so-called human stars on television and movie screens.

Countless times, they may have looked upward seeing the geometry of stars reflected accurately in the shapes of flowers on Earth.

"These ideas were so prevalent that the almanac was the second most common book in the Pennsylvania German household, second only to the Bible," Donmoyer said.

By painting stars, Pennsylvania Germans displayed beliefs that were reflected and transformed by artistry. Such folk art was found on the outsides and even insides of barns in a variety of Berks County locations.

What does all this say about hex signs and witchcraft?

What does it say about Pennsylvania German self-consciousness about beliefs, and even later intentional suppression of those views, especially in changing times of anti-German sentiment in the 20th century?

It could say quite a lot. Donmoyer will continue to investigate. He will endeavor to interpret.

But he does believe barn stars speak for themselves, powerfully and symmetrically, in what he termed a "visual vibration and rotation of their beauty."

They have contributed mightily, he said, to Berks County's agrarian aesthetic.

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On Native Ground - American Reporter

Posted: 05 Nov 2009 10:40 PM PST

On Native Ground
MY BACK PAGES: WATCHING MY CRAFT CHANGE OVER 30 YEARS
by Randolph T. Holhut
American Reporter Correspondent
Dummerston, Vt.

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Printable version of this story

DUMMERSTON, Vt. -- I got my first job in journalism at the age of 18 in the spring of 1980. I was a freshman in college and landed a night shift gig at WSPR, a radio station in Springfield, Mass.

News came over an Associated Press teletype machine at 65 words a minute. Changing the heavily inked ribbons was always a chore, not to mention making sure the paper didn't run out.

Stories were typed on battered old manual typewriters that dated back to the 1940s.

Computers? Still a new-fangled technology that hadn't yet seeped down to this level of the business.

The Internet? There were only a few hundred people using it. If you needed to look up an address, you got a phone book or a city directory. If you needed to confirm a stray fact, you pulled out The World Almanac.

They were still using reel-to-reel tape recorders, and a razor blade and Scotch tape were your tools for editing audio. It was still an analog world, with dials and meters and black telephones with dials.

In the fall of 1985, when I started working in newspapers, video display terminals were cutting edge technology. Two years later, I went out and got my first computer - a Radio Shack TRS-80 Model 100 laptop. With its built-in 300 baud modem, I could file a story anyplace I could find a pay phone.

Cellphones? That was as futuristic as the communicators they used on "Star Trek."

There were still a few smokers in the first city room I worked in. The barroom downstairs was still a place where you could find reporters between shifts. The building also shuddered just a little from the giant presses when they fired up, and the stairwells were coated with a thin film of ink.

That first newspaper company I worked for - the Worcester (Mass.) Telegram and Evening Gazette - had four morning and six afternoon editions and a dozen bureaus in the county it published in. There were two separate news staffs, and even though they worked for the same company, the competition was still fierce.

One of my several jobs was working in the morgue - the newspaper's library - where we still clipped stories out of each day's edition and filed them away in envelopes. When a reporter or editor needed background on a subject, my job was to retrieve the right folders with the right clippings in a room filled with hundreds of cabinets with files that went back decades.

Pneumatic tubes brought pictures up to the composing room, and page proofs came down to the copy desk the same way. The darkroom was just that, a dark room filled with a dozen photo enlargers and photographers rushing make prints on deadline. I eventually learned how to do darkroom work and how to go from taking the film out of the camera to producing a finished print in under 30 minutes. The photos from the AP came one at a time from a LaserPhoto printer, in 8 minute intervals. Waiting for photos was a constant hassle.

The old photographers I encountered then were old enough to have used Speed Graphics - the bulky, hard-to-focus 4 x 5 inch cameras that were the newspaper standard from the 1920s to the 1960s.

The old compositors I encountered then were old enough to remember linotypes and the smell of melting lead.

The old editors I encountered then were old enough to remember pastepots and black pencils and making and remaking a newspaper on the fly with a few written instructions and a lot of teamwork in the mechanical departments.

Pagination - making a pages on a computer - was just starting to creep into use. I remember the first such unit - a Mac Plus - which was used to make graphic. Within 10 years of seeing that Mac for the first time, I would be making pages on a computer. The compositors - the wizards with Exacto knifes that could do just about anything you asked, just don't touch the type, please - were out of a job.

Automation changed lots of things. I was replaced by a computer terminal in the paper's morgue. Indexing was now done with a few keystrokes, not with a heavy steel straight edge tearing pages. Digital photography made the darkroom obsolete. The teletype printers disappeared, and wire service news came flying into the mainframe computers at thousands of words a minute.

And now I feel as ancient as the people I met when I started out, the tribe that started out in the 1940s and 1950s, when newspapers were king and the work that reporters did was the stuff of movies.

Twenty years ago this month, I went through my first buyout. The T & G had been sold two years before, and changes were in the works. Being a junior member of the staff who lashed three part-time jobs into something of a living, I was thrown overboard immediately. But I was struck by how many people, the elders of the paper that I looked up to and learned from, chose to take a buyout and leave than stick around and face an uncertain future. Most of that generation left, and I got my first education on the harshness of the newspaper business.

The morning and evening papers merged the following year. The T & G's bureaus started to disappear. The presses moved out of the hulking old building on Franklin Street and went to a remote site a few miles away. The papers were sold again, this time to The New York Times Co. They eliminated zoned editions this year and the paper is struggling to survive.

Since that bleak Yuletide two decades ago, I've been through three more newspaper sales. I've become an elder, talking about the old days of afternoon papers, pasting-up pages, teletypes and darkrooms to a generation that Googles phone numbers and needs MapQuest to find an address. And I've watched my profession go from fat and sassy to threadbare and dying in one generation.

I'm still young enough to be a bridge between the analog and digital eras, and still looking forward to the shape of journalism to come. The tools we have now to tell stories were barely dreamed of when I started out, but I recognize how important they are and working to master them. We just have to remember that the need to tell stories is primal, and that storytellers will always be needed.

What will the young reporters I work with now be saying when they look back at their careers 20 years from now? Will they be talking about that gruff and crabby gray-bearded editor they had as their first mentor? The rickety first-generation iMacs that they have to use to write their stories on? The lack of reliable Internet and cellphone service? Or will they talk about working in newspapers at a time when they became quaint relics of a bygone age?

My love for the printed page is still abiding, but it's hard to remember what it was like before the Internet, before desktop computers, before digital cameras and voice recorders, before the avalanche of data that pours from the Web each day, before the 24-hour news cycle, before all the changes that I have seen in nearly three decades of broadcast, print and online journalism. The past is a nice place to visit, but the future is still the place I hope to see.

Randolph T. Holhut has been a journalist in New England for nearly 30 years. He edited "The George Seldes Reader" (Barricade Books). He can be reached at randyholhut@yahoo.com.

Almanacs

Friday, November 6, 2009